Ruto’s Second Term: A Make or Break Moment for Kenya’s Future

By Richard Ochieng

Email, thecoastnewspaper@gmail.com

If President William Ruto secures a second term in office following the 2027 elections, it would mark a pivotal moment in Kenya’s political landscape.

His presidency, having already navigated a complex and contentious first term, has set the stage for deeper political, economic, and social ramifications in the country.

Whether this second term would represent a “make or break” scenario for Ruto’s legacy, the nation’s development, or Kenya’s political stability is a critical question to answer, as it hinges on numerous factors—his governance style, the political environment, economic performance, and national unity.

This analysis explores the potential outcomes of Ruto securing another term, both for him personally and for the country as a whole.

Political Context of Ruto’s First Term

Ruto’s first term as president has been characterized by several key challenges and achievements. Coming from a divisive 2022 elections, where he faced off against Raila Odinga, his rise to power was not without controversy.

His victory in 2022 was seen as a triumph for the “hustler” movement, a political ideology he championed that aims to empower the common citizen and address the country’s entrenched inequalities. 

However, his leadership has also been marked by accusations of political elitism, challenges with his former boss, President Uhuru Kenyatta, and continued friction with opposition leaders.

Ruto has had to manage a polarized political environment. His government has also faced significant economic challenges, such as soaring inflation, rising debt levels, and the impact of global economic factors.

These issues have tested his leadership and brought into sharp focus his ability to implement meaningful reforms while managing the expectations of the Kenyan people.

However, the first term also saw efforts to stabilize Kenya’s economy, with Ruto pushing for fiscal discipline and structural reforms to reduce the national debt and improve public service delivery.

Given this backdrop, the question of whether securing a second term would be a “make or break” scenario for Ruto depends on his ability to navigate these challenges and build upon the foundations of his presidency.

A Make or Break Scenario

If Ruto secures a second term, it could provide him with the opportunity to cement his legacy and address the many challenges that defined his first term.

A second term would give him greater political capital and the chance to make substantial progress on the promises he made during his campaign, particularly those related to economic reforms, job creation, and poverty alleviation.

His presidency has emphasized the importance of a “bottom-up” approach to development, where wealth is distributed more equitably across the population, rather than being concentrated at the top.

This philosophy could be fully realized during his second term if the political environment allows for it.

1. Economic Transformation and Stability:

A successful second term would be crucial for Ruto in proving that his economic policies are viable and sustainable. 

The implementation of the “hustler” movement’s promises—such as empowering small businesses, improving access to affordable housing, and creating jobs—would likely determine the success of his second term.

If Ruto is able to address the structural economic problems facing Kenya, such as the growing national debt, high inflation, and unemployment, his second term could be remembered as a time of economic transformation.

The public’s perception of his leadership would largely depend on whether his policies succeed in lifting the majority of Kenyans out of poverty and creating opportunities for all.

2. Strengthened Political Alliances:

In his first term, Ruto’s political alliances were frequently tested, especially following his fallout with Kenyatta.

In his second term, he could look to further solidify his alliances, not only within his own party, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), but also across the political spectrum. If Ruto is able to extend an olive branch to his opponents and forge a more inclusive government, he could build a broad coalition that would enhance political stability.

This would also contribute to a more united political environment, helping mitigate the risks of division, which has historically plagued Kenya after every election cycle.

3. Consolidation of Political Power:

Securing a second term could allow Ruto to cement his political dominance, potentially positioning him as one of Kenya’s most powerful leaders in recent history.

By leveraging his second term to pass landmark reforms and ensure that his legacy is secured, he could build a lasting political influence.

His ability to maintain control over the political landscape, expand his support base, and neutralize any opposition would mark a significant achievement for him as a leader.

4. Social Development and National Unity:

Ruto’s government could focus on long-term social development, with initiatives targeting education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

A second term would allow him the time and political support needed to implement these reforms effectively. 

Additionally, if Ruto succeeds in uniting the country and bridging ethnic divides, his second term could bring a new era of stability and peace.

Given Kenya’s past experiences with post-election violence and political conflict, a successful effort to promote national unity could be one of the most significant outcomes of Ruto’s second term.

Ruto’s Second Term: A Break Scenario?

While a second term could offer Ruto a chance to achieve his vision for Kenya, it also carries the potential for failure. If Ruto is unable to address the deep-seated challenges facing the country, his second term could mark a period of stagnation, economic decline, and political polarization.

1. Economic Woes and Rising Public Discontent:

A major risk for Ruto is the inability to effectively manage the country’s economic challenges. 

With the rising cost of living, inflation, and a growing national debt, Ruto’s government would need to prove that it has the capacity to implement policies that can stimulate growth and improve the lives of ordinary Kenyans.

If the government fails to address these pressing issues, public dissatisfaction could escalate, leading to protests, unrest, and the erosion of public trust in the government.

Economic failure during his second term could seriously damage his legacy and political career.

2. Failure to Deliver on Promises:

Ruto’s second term would also be defined by his ability to deliver on the promises he made to his supporters.

If Ruto is unable to achieve the socio-economic transformation that he promised, particularly in addressing income inequality and providing opportunities for the youth, his presidency could be seen as a missed opportunity.

The “hustler” movement, which has been a key aspect of his political brand, could lose momentum, and Ruto could face a backlash from those who feel that he has betrayed their trust.

3. Political Polarization and Divisiveness:

Kenya’s political climate is often marked by divisions along ethnic and political lines. If Ruto is unable to unite the country, his second term could deepen these divisions.

The ongoing rivalry with opposition leaders, such as Raila Odinga, and the lack of meaningful engagement with opposition groups could create further tensions and unrest.

Political polarization could impede effective governance, creating an environment of constant conflict and instability.

4. Governance Challenges and Corruption:

Corruption has long been a significant issue in Kenyan politics, and Ruto’s government is not immune to these challenges.

If corruption scandals continue to plague his administration or if the government fails to effectively address the issue, it could undermine the legitimacy of his presidency.

This would tarnish his legacy and alienate voters who hoped for a government that would tackle corruption head-on.

Moreover, poor governance or ineffective leadership could erode public confidence in the government’s ability to address the country’s problems.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Kenya’s Future

If William Ruto secures a second term, it would undoubtedly be a critical juncture for both his presidency and Kenya’s future.

His second term would offer the opportunity to solidify his legacy as a transformative leader, capable of addressing the country’s economic challenges, fostering national unity, and implementing key reforms. However, it also carries significant risks. 

Economic mismanagement, political polarization, and failure to deliver on his promises could define his second term as a time of stagnation or crisis.

Ultimately, whether Ruto’s second term represents a “make or break” moment will depend on his ability to manage the complex political and economic environment and to fulfill the expectations of the Kenyan people.

If he succeeds, he could leave a lasting impact on the nation’s development and political stability. If he fails, however, his presidency could be seen as a missed opportunity, with lasting consequences for Kenya’s future.