Mwaguya Likely to Unseat Old Guard in Mombasa Senatorial Race, Poll Reveals

By Mbungu Harrison

Email, thecoastnewspaper@gmail.com

The battle for the Mombasa Senate seat is beginning to take shape, with former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho’s longtime cabinet nominee, Hamisi Mwaguya, emerging as the early favorite in a new opinion poll ahead of the 2027 General Election.

According to a survey released by Swiss Poll International on Monday, July 27, 2026, Mwaguya leads the crowded field of aspirants, signaling growing public confidence in his bid to succeed or unseat the incumbent.

The poll, conducted among 5,284 respondents, places Mwaguya at the top with 27.2 percent support, equivalent to 1,435 respondents.

Incumbent Senator Mohamed Faki, who is expected to defend his seat, follows closely with 24.5 percent or 1,294 respondents, leaving a slim 2.7 percentage-point gap between the two leading contenders.

With the election still more than a year away, the results suggest the contest remains highly competitive and could tighten further as campaigns gather momentum.

Mwaguya is no stranger to Mombasa’s political landscape. He has served a county secretary and trade CECM and one of the closest political aides to former Governor Hassan Joho, in the Coast region, Mwaguya has steadily built his own political profile.

His supporters view him as a leader with an intimate understanding of county governance and the challenges facing Mombasa, while his critics argue he will need to demonstrate an playing a key behind-the-scenes role during Joho’s tenure at the county government.

Known for his organizational skills, grassroots networks, and close association with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leadership in the Coast region, Mwaguya has steadily built his own political profile.

His supporters view him as a leader with an intimate understanding of county governance and the challenges facing Mombasa, while his critics argue he will need to demonstrate an independent political identity beyond his long association with Joho.

His strong showing in the latest poll suggests that his years in public service and visibility within county politics are translating into significant electoral support.

UDA’s Mgeni Mboto Hassan ranked third with 10.3 percent (544 respondents).

Businessman Bernard William followed with 9.9 percent (525 respondents), while activist Victor Abayo secured 9.5 percent (503 respondents).

Youth leader Ali Kubo garnered 9.3 percent, while journalist Charles Mghenyi, who has also declared interest in the Senate seat, received 3.9 percent.

Ali Ganzala polled 2.4 percent, while 3.0 percent of respondents indicated they would support other candidates.

The survey was conducted with a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent, making it an early indicator of voter sentiment rather than a prediction of the final election outcome.

Mwaguya’s emergence as the early frontrunner is expected to energize his campaign as political realignments begin ahead of the 2027 General Election.

For Senator Faki, the findings underscore the challenge of defending his seat against a growing field of contenders.

With several prominent figures already positioning themselves for the race including journalist Charles Mghenyi the contest is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political battles along the Coast.

As campaigns intensify and political alliances evolve, the Mombasa senatorial race is expected to remain one of the defining contests of the 2027 elections.